The course targets deepening of knowledge in probabilistic mathematics and its application to analysis, design, reliability optimization and risk management in complex human and technical systems. Common methods for data gathering, identification of raliability features and system reliability modeling will be presented together with tools for risk management, fundamental approaches to optimal design and evaluation of composite reliabilities as well as system bacup solutions in highly complex structures. Finally, practice-oriented approaches to estimation and minimalization of system risk, risk-to-costs balancing together with related methods for risk and reliability analysis, i.e. fault-tree and event-tree based approaches, FMEA/FMEVCA analyses, etc.
1.Introduction to diagnostic and system safety, probability, random processes, applications in reliability and risk management. 2.Uncertainty modelling , reliability models for technical systems. 3.Data gathering and parameter estimation, reliability of a complex system. 4.Impriving reliability, system backup. 5.Markov medels. 6.Recoverable systems. 7.Reliability and human factor, interaction types, quantitative analysis. 8.Introduction to risk management-overview. 9.Probabilistic risk analysis.PRA. 10.FMEA/FMECA analysis. 11.Continuous risk management. 12.Reliability and risk optimization. 13.Risk management in practice.case study.